Yeah but that's the ultimate commital to the art and you've got the finance, meaning you are totally and completely free.

Key phrase there, "It seems..." But it ain't all roses. Sure there will be some examples, but there's tonnes of rubbish in the media over hyping particular opportunities and misrepresenting the stories. Life ain't that easy or simple. People fall by the wayside, choose the wrong thing or even have serious bad luck through no fault of there own. Have you ever considered that the people telling you these stores might have ulterior motive?

You can't choose when you were born and lived experiences are different. Great swathes of the Western young have zero assets. The average persons largest asset, is probably wrapped up in their property, which in't even included in the general inflation (AFAIK).

I would suggest that there isn't a 'desired' inflation rate, its an undulating wave. It's not in everybodies "interest" - (no pun intended) to have 2% inflation. I think there's an argument to suggest that capital is over-competeing itself, business don't want to absorb extra costs incurred by various disruptions. Therefore the people at the bottom get's stung. This scares the fuck out of everybody making them more susceptible. To be fair, fear is a fair response.

There are devastating ironies and contradictions about it all. People have zero trust in government yet have an amazing loyalty and faith in the freedom of businesses/ asset holders / markets to decide the value of money. People wonder why wages lag but then totally despise organised unions or government interfence.

I thought this was quite an insightful discussion on inflation.

 

That's not just to stay there for a month. That's people who got put in ICU and all of that type of things. They bill your insurance something like 29$ for a Tylenol. What do you think a ventilator and a tech to run 3 or 4 of them 24 hours a day costs? Insane amounts of money.

my point is not the sum, but the unexpected aspect. you can go from sitting on a beach to screwed. overnight.

Germany is beautiful. But I live 5000 miles west. If it could be more right now, I'd probably take it.

 

Oh, it's all not so bad.
But thinking yourself and being careful is important.
The most important measure is not to rely on others, but to take a look at the basics yourself.
Better read some real books written from experts than using the internet/youtube (too much PR and advertising)
Your core statement will then always come up by itself: Never invest everything in a single form of investment, but make it a mix. It won't all go bust at the same time.

 

Last edited: Apr 26, 2022

The Rockefeller Foundation speaks of an imminent famine.It is considered closely associated with the WEF and advocates the "reset".

According to Dohmen, with real inflation currently at 16%, people will soon have no purchasing power left. Temporary inflation, he says, is a figment of economists' imagination. He explains in the interview that inflation in its early phase leads to, among other things, inflated sales figures for companies. These inflated numbers could lead investors to overprice companies, which could eventually lead to big losses. "The numbers are getting higher and higher and look so great at first glance. No, they're inflation numbers. It's really not that great."

 

I've thought about it when I was younger but realistically, it's not going to happen. Too many ties here. I've got kids and grandkids that live local to me. I want to see them regularly -- not just a couple of times a year.

 

Oh yes. Reality is an a**hole
I understand you perfectly. Since I have grandchildren, my attachment to the place has become much stronger. You just want to see them grow up. And the bond is so intense and unencumbered because, unlike being a father, you don't have to constantly think about whether you are spoiling the children too much.
Grandfathers are allowed to.

 

And I wasn't the best dad in the world. (I wasn't terrible but I was absent more than I should have been -- left rather more of the heavy lifting to their mother, etc. etc.) Being a grandfather gives you -- not exactly a second shot, but it's almost like a second go on the merry-go-round with the advantage of being older and less stupid.

Having kids transforms you, and not always for the better but my grandkids are a real unalloyed pleasure in my life.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in what anyone in the IMF has to say. This is the organisation that spent the best part of 40 years recommending mass privatisations for every struggling country, until it turned out around 2008 that they'd got their calculations wrong and had to admit that all their recommended policies were actually wrong.

Governments ultimately don't control their money supply, the private sector's demand for credit does. Modern economies don't "print money" in that manner anymore e.g. 97% of all money in the UK is electronic and only 3% is cash. That's not to say a recession won't happen, because they do (roughly every 10-15 years) but that's an inevitable result of bad policy choices and the consequences coming to the fore (just-in-time supply chains being hit by a pandemic the world was unprepared for, stagnant wages not keeping up with the cost of living in order to maximise profits etc), not because there's more money in the system.

If inflation were linked to the money supply, we would see predictable inflation and exchange rate movements as each economy grows and we don't because the concept is a neoliberal myth. Japan's actions frequently debunk the expectations of orthodox narratives for example. They've been trying for the best part of 20 years to get some inflation into their economy and keep failing despite having created billions of new Yen for quantitative easing.

Ignore 'mainstream' economists and read what the Post-Keynesians are saying.

 

I-ve already got most of that! I do have a computer 2 speakers and a sound card. is that too much?

 

Good analysis.

Spoiler: Money supply therories

In fact, the money supply has been talked about as a driver of inflation in one direction or another since before the neoliberals. When I was in business school in the 1970s, fairly simple equations were discussed about the influence of the money supply on various economic ratios.
In the end (today), it all turned out to be nonsense because it grossly oversimplifies the actual conditions.
In fact, pretty much all predictions have turned out to be nonsense or they have been flukes in statistical fuzziness.

The global economic system is still far too complex to fully understand. It seems that all measures still have to be taken on the basis of reactions and not on the basis of correct predictions.

Perhaps economists also have to get used to the idea that the deterministic world view has had its day and make friends with a kind of quantum physics of the economy, as was the case in physics at the beginning of the 20th century.
If the deterministic world view of the economic sciences would be correct, then every actual situation with the models would have to be calculated back to an arbitrary period in the past.
But this does not work.
The result is that either the data are not complete and the computers are not powerful enough, or the assumed models are wrong.
I think it's a mix of both.

 

Last edited: May 5, 2022

A bit back on topic:
When I was around 25 years old, I drew up a plan for my economic future.
Of course, I knew that this would not be a precision landing, but I had already assumed that my ideas would be roughly fulfilled. The goal was to retire with about the same net income at the age of 55.

That would have worked, had it not been for the economic criseses caused by the neo-liberals and the consequences that followed:
1. introduction of the Euro
2. economic crisis 2008ff
3. Euro crisis
4. Pension crisis due to rising average age
5. Low interest rate policy of the ECB

These points together led to the fact that my retirement can only take place at 65, so 10 years later!
Anyone who has calculated similarly to me, but with the target age of 65 (to be able to enjoy life more during the savings phase, for example) will now run into tough problems.

Spoiler: Some Tips to prepare for retirement

For me, the influences from outside and my own wrong/right decisions result in the following tips for younger people:

• Believe it that you still want to live (good) with > 60 (when we're very young we doubt this often)
• Start saving as early as possible
• Leave yourself a large time buffer
• Do not rely on governmental pension systems (calculate them with 0)
• Save additional money privately. Do not rely on others but learn about how to invest money yourself
• Set aside at least 50% of surplus money for "later"
• Mix and spread of your investments (not only of asset classes but also geographical diversified if possible)
• Do not consider an owner-occupied house/flat as a capital investment. In the event of a necessary sale, emotions play too big a role.
• Do not buy or lease expensive cars, it's not and investment

I'm sure that can be expanded or discussed.

 

Last edited: May 5, 2022

@samsome what you missed in this exchange is that the word "asset" already implies that its something that makes money, if you are holding cash you are loosing money even if you aren't spending it due to inflation. Assets generally trump cash in most scenarios due to this fact. Only time cash is better is when the price of assets are low (like after recessions for example) when value is basically guaranteed to increase. Another generality is that you should aim to buy assets with cash not to buy things, and then buy things with the cash your asset generates.

 

right as long as you can trust the asset....otherwise better to just hold onto the cash during these uncertain times and live off of that for now

 

Currently, we have a cash devaluation of circa 6.5 - 8.5% due to commodity inflation. That means if you used to buy goods in 100 dollars, the same goods are now expensive by 6.5 % - 8.5 on average. In the case of energy such as oil and gas and other raw materials, you sometimes pay 35-45% more today. Now you know what cash destruction or inflation means.

The standard of living has gone down massively since Corona (supply chains) and the war in Ukraine (wheat prices / oil / gas due to sanctions practice). That means people have less purchasing power because food and energy prices are destroying their money. The rising energy prices and commodity prices are added to the product.

 

After the war and hyperinflation, you couldn't get a sack of potatoes from the farmer because money wasn't worth anything.
If you had a bottle of alcohol you went to the farmer and got a sack of potatoes for the bottle of grain.

Gold and silver the safest investment in the world, over thousands of years gold has retained its value. Whisky is also a good money investment, it does not go bad. If it should come times nevertheless to a stock exchange crash or financial system collapse, many investors will go out empty. Buying land is also a good idea. Consider also if the electricity fails, the cash machine no longer works.
Cyber attacks can also lead to your online banking nightmare.

 

haha whiskey!! never thought of that as an investment hehe has some ground ;p

 

That is debatable.
But I would also always tend to a certain amount of precious metal - but then in physical form and not as a fund.
But even that has a catch. Gold can be stolen very easily. And the question arises, how do you buy a sack of potatoes with a 100g gold bar, for example? With tongs and scales?

A friend of mine is invested in Whisky with some hundered bottles. First I also thought he wants to tease me...
Another one with a bunch of historic cars....

OK, at the moment both are quite well off as far as price development is concerned, but I consider this form of investment to be one of our luxury times.
During or after a major war, people have other things to do than drink overpriced whisky or buy cars for which there is no more gas.
Also, both bring tricky insurance issues. What is insured, the current price or the purchase price, and what happens, for example, if water damage causes the labels to come off my bottles?
Both have already happened and did not end well.

 

Last edited: May 5, 2022

At the latest when your bank is bankrupt or your life insurer is bankrupt you will realize that paper is worth nothing.
Cash at home also carries a risk, robbery - apartment burglary, safe gone, Blizeinschlag with fire. Attention TwoHeart if you bury your money in the garden, remember that money can also mold.

If a country is involved in war or a major natural disaster has occurred, it is better to have some cash and gold. Gold can be exchanged all over the world. You can make things out of gold, but not out of paper.

“Only after the last tree has been cut down / Only after the last river has been poisoned / Only after the last fish has been caught / Then will you find that money cannot be eaten.” - Divination of the Cree

 

Put your savings to one side and find ways to earn just enough income to pay all of your bills. Your savings will hopefully cover you for unexpected events.

 

WTF? I thought covid hospital stay is free worldwide