Just wait for the bubble to burst, there will be tons of cheap stuff floating around after..
Can't remember if it was Alphabet or MS saying that if 3rd world won't take AI use in this year, it will fail. Hard to see that kind of money coming 3rd world..

 

Ummm you may wish to check that. The Greeks invented democracy. 5th Century BCE.
Best to try and stay away from any mention of politics too just in case, even the ancient ones.

 

This is an exercise in optimism, because it assumes geopolitical stabilization and sufficient expansion to normalize the market. Realism, on the other hand, points to a strong possibility that shortages and high prices may continue for years, even with new factories (big fat money)!

 

I am really trying to stay away from the negatives and look for positives. When you mentioned factories, after the Amazon leaning towards robotics, forgive me if I say we are just going to have to wait and see exactly what, how and with who or what that develops.

 

My solution to this problem is to fire AI and any of it's developers into the sun. It definitely has it's big benefits in various facets of life, but I can do without it completely, and it feels like we are shooting ourselves in the foot here just because everyone developing it wants to be first/best.

 

I understand, you prefer to believe it might work out, but there’s no way to be certain right now. And that’s exactly the point: while we remain in the "wait and see" mindset, the market keeps imposing ever-higher prices and concrete limitations on those who depend on these technologies ("surfing the wave" until the bubble bursts, to fill their coffers with big fat money!).
This is not about pessimism, but about recognizing that the current dynamics cannot be solved by hope or purely positive expectations alone. We need to look at the signals (production bottlenecks, the tech race, geopolitical volatility) and think like adults about how this directly affects us (and, most importantly, in the long term, humanity as a greater whole).
Optimism is valid and great for mental health, but without realism it becomes mere cheering (with us as part of the audience). What we need now is critical analysis, so we don’t get caught off guard = to safeguard ourselves against future problems by making the best possible and foreseeable decisions!

 

Last edited: Feb 18, 2026 at 4:20 PM

When you own a lot of computing capability a made the market unaffordable for the rest, you can just rent it out i.e. make people dependent on it. Then having cornered the market you can just raise prices and repeat.

AI is a perfect example of this, the models you can run are unaffordable by anyone else, so they have to rent it from you. They don't want customers, they want repeat customers and eventually dependents.

 

Unfortunately is already happening. As already said here, AI is useful but the savage over-spending in hardware bubble brings nothing but bad shit to us consumers. It's a very real and legit concern. Giant AI datacenters are very bad news.

We can only hope the bubble bursts and things return to some kind of reasonable investing in AI. But for the moment, again as already said, we can only watch. We basically don't have power.

 

Last edited: Feb 18, 2026 at 4:26 PM

Sorry, couldn’t resist taking a jab
You know I’ve got nothing but laughs with you, pal!
You’re the man Xupi!

 

Last edited: Feb 18, 2026 at 5:23 PM

Couple snippets from the past two weeks:

- Steam Deck OLED out of stock / only intermittently available due to shortages, Steam Deck LCD no longer in production.
- Steam Machine delayed, price to be re-adjusted.
- Raspberry Pi 16/256 approaching Mac Mini M4 prices.
- Mini PCs doubled in price.
- Sony said to be delaying the next PlayStation, possibly all the way to 2029.
- PC sales for 2026 projected to decline by 7-12%. This is despite the current panic purchases.
- Price for storage projected to follow the same trajectory as volatile memory.
- US Amazon PC parts sales down 60% QoQ.
- Motherboard sales down 50% globally.
- Factory orders for cheap consumer electronics requiring volatile memory down "significantly".
- Budget computing devices down-specced from 2025 levels - same price.
- Nvidia said to be cutting consumer GPU supplies by at least 20%.
- Cloud computing price hikes - up to 25%.

 

Spoiler: Storage crisis: Phison CEO sees manufacturer facing collapse by 2026

Storage crisis: Phison CEO sees manufacturer facing collapse by 2026
Should the current trend continue, the storage crisis could drag on until 2030 or even beyond.

More and more manufacturers are apparently preparing for a persistent storage shortage. Phison CEO Khein-Seng Pua believes that this could lead to the collapse of several small manufacturers as early as 2026.

Phison is a heavyweight in the SSD industry with strong connections: The company manufactures controllers and also complete SSDs that companies sell under their own brand. The CEO's statements in a roughly hour-long video therefore carry weight. The interview is in Chinese; an X account has shared numerous sections. We have had the machine translations in this report verified by a native speaker.

Storage crisis possible until 2030 and beyond
According to Phison's internal forecasts, the imbalance between supply and demand for memory chips could persist until at least 2030. This would mean that memory will remain scarce for several more years, allowing manufacturers to dictate prices. In the realm of high-density memory (DRAM), market power is concentrated in the hands of three manufacturers: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. They account for over 90 percent of global DRAM production. For NAND flash memory, used in applications such as SSDs, there are a few other manufacturers, including Kioxia and SanDisk.

The memory crisis has now reached almost all memory types: from DDR5 modules in desktop PCs to LPDDR5X for notebooks and smartphones, and on to SSDs and HDDs.

Manufacturer exodus
Small manufacturers, in particular, face two problems. First, it's becoming increasingly difficult for them to even obtain memory. Second, according to the Phison CEO, payment models have changed. Previously, customers could, for example, pay for memory chips after soldering them onto SSDs and then selling them. Now, customers are expected to pay for the chips upfront, sometimes with three-year framework agreements. If a manufacturer doesn't have the necessary equity capital, they will likely go bankrupt.

The discrepancy between SSD manufacturers with and without their own memory production is already evident in German retail . Samsung has seen price increases of around 50 percent for models with up to 2 TB capacity. In contrast, prices for Kingston, Lexar, and Patriot, which do not have their own memory chips, have sometimes tripled.

Fewer devices in the long term
The shortages will affect all devices sooner or later. Pua calculates that 8 GB of embedded flash memory (eMMC) cost $1.50 in 2025. Now, such a chip is said to cost around $20. Specially certified types are even more expensive; automakers, for example, reportedly pay $30.

Pua expects electronics manufacturers to reduce production of many types of devices. Specifically, he anticipates 200 million to 250 million fewer smartphones annually, which would correspond to roughly 15 to 20 percent of global production. The Phison CEO also expects significant declines in PCs (including notebooks) and televisions.

AI bubble
The storage crisis is due to the enormous demand from hyperscalers for their AI data centers. The concept of supply and demand no longer works: Normally, high prices would cause demand to fall, which would then allow prices to stabilize. Now, however, hyperscalers are buying up everything that is available, regardless of cost.

Due to past boom-and-bust cycles, memory manufacturers are hesitant to expand production. The most recent such reversal occurred in 2023: High demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic collapsed abruptly, leading to billions in losses . Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all incurred losses with their DRAM production.

Memory production at new semiconductor plants is scheduled to begin toward the end of 2027. However, it is questionable whether the increase in capacity will be sufficient to significantly improve the current situation. Several chip manufacturers and hardware producers do not believe that the AI bubble will burst in the coming years.

Spoiler: Why is this "crisis" being artificially exaggerated?

Why is this "crisis" being artificially exaggerated?

The fact that the current situation is quite dramatic is clear from the raw numbers. But when I see how both the press and various forums are succumbing to apocalyptic sentiment, I can only look on in astonishment.

There doesn't even have to be a bubble bursting for prices to normalize again. The data centers will be built eventually. Even if AI continues to develop at full speed, companies like Google, Meta, and others won't be able to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on it every year. At the same time, all AI technologies are becoming more efficient. And even though the technologies have developed rapidly in recent years and are still developing rapidly (just look at what video generators can do now compared to early 2025), there will be a limit to what's possible. In my view, the development of LLM has already leveled off. Other generative AI areas will follow.

It's worth remembering that memory chips are not consumables. They won't be burned or melted down in data centers. If they're there, they're there. And the globe won't be paved with data centers until every one of us is renting a warm room with a whirring inference server. There's a limit. Even without any bubbles bursting, there's a limit.

Somehow, all the doomsayers who claim "supply and demand no longer work" don't seem to grasp this. But the chip manufacturers, who aren't expanding their capacities in this supposed golden age, do. They know what they're doing. They're my litmus test—if they suddenly become frantically active, then I'll be worried.

I maintain that this whole charade will be over in a year. And yes, I'll be reminded of that statement in a year's time. Of course, such statements are bold. But as I said, I'm looking at the chip manufacturers, who currently seem to be making a very similar bet. I don't need to be a business/economics expert—I just watch the experts.

Besides, I know from personal experience how awful the current situation is. I actually wanted to get my own computer at the end of last year. But I still find the distorted perception of prices incredibly annoying. For decades, prices have been falling dramatically, but no one's celebrated it. But when prices rise dramatically for a whole year, it's the end of the world, or at least the end of the PC (DIY) market. It reminds me of when electricity prices rose, people were practically ready to go on a shooting spree. A few days ago, I read about significant price reductions in basic electricity supply, looked out the window, and was surprised to see that nobody was dancing the samba naked with joy. The perception of price increases is somehow always ten times more intense than that of price decreases.

 

Sapphire on the memory crisis: "Don't panic, relax"

A PR manager for hardware manufacturer Sapphire urges calm when buying a PC. Prices are skyrocketing primarily due to panic.

The supply situation for RAM, SSDs, and HDDs could ease sooner than expected. At least, that's what Edward Crisler, PR manager at graphics card and motherboard manufacturer Sapphire for almost 13 years, believes. "There's a lot of uncertainty in the market," Crisler said in a podcast with the YouTube channel Hardware Unboxed. "I think this uncertainty will be painful for us gamers for the next six months or so. But I'm absolutely convinced that the market will stabilize within six to eight months."

"Prices might not be exactly what we'd like, but I think some of the uncertainty will disappear and things will stabilize," Crisler continued. "That's why I tell people not to panic and think, 'The sky is falling, the sky is falling, PC gaming is going to die out.' They've been saying that for ages, but it's never happened."

"Prices might not be exactly what we'd hoped for, but I think some of the uncertainty will disappear and things will stabilize," Crisler continued. Crisler compares the current situation to the beginning of the frequently changing US tariffs: Back then, hardware manufacturers panicked and bought components to preempt the tariffs, driving up prices. Now, prices are skyrocketing because everyone wants to secure as many storage products as possible.

Crisler condemns the hardware hunger fueled by artificial intelligence just as he condemned the crypto mining boom: "[AI] is like a black hole at the center of a solar system, sucking everything around it in, and nothing escapes."

[AI] Playing with What You Have

Until the situation improves, Crisler recommends continuing to use existing PCs as much as possible: “We’re currently in a 3- to 4-year upgrade cycle. Most people who have a computer that’s only three or four years old and that they built themselves can still play on it for another year or two without any problems. You’ll be able to enjoy the gaming experience. Don’t panic, don’t rush out and buy anything just because you feel you have to. Put your money aside, relax, play some games, and enjoy the system you currently have. And when things have calmed down, you can make an informed decision about what to do next. And believe me, if you wait to upgrade until you really need it, you’ll save money, and the upgrade will be more worthwhile and effective when you do go ahead.”

His conclusion: “Guys, don’t panic, calm down, relax, and let’s wait and see where we are in six months.”

 

We had a nuclear arms race. AI is weaponised, and now it will be an AI arms race. Requires lots of hardware, lots of electricity, lots of cooling and probably lots of tunneling underground. Availability will drop and prices spike as the infrastructure is ramped up.

 

It is still not profitable, it´s all on the papers, but not really realized(I don´t know a single person buying for AI subs). This is just history repeating itself..
Thank god, I bought powerful enough computer couple of years ago(with possibility to run local AI/ML, if I want to), last one ran 12 years. Also my updated home server is covered for couple of years at least with HDD´s and SSD´s.

 

there's India AI Impact Summit in New Delhi happening this week, and stakes are high,
according to OpenAI, India is already second largest user base after U.S., and education seems to have higher priority in India too - https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/18/o...-education-as-india-seeks-to-scale-ai-skills/

 

Like: Chillax, we'll form an ‘AI-ready’ generation, capable of competing globally in an economy driven by artificial intelligence!



It is not because the world keeps moving that we must stand still, silent as shadows without a voice!

 

Optimism that the tide will turn in the case of microchip scarcity is as useless as a cardboard frying pan. The power of positive thinking has no impact or bearing on the issue of supply and demand. It makes not a whit of difference...the needs of the common people doesn't fit into the math, if it ever did. The Billionaire Boys Club has it rigged and cannot fail... money has no value and is created at will by financial institutions that have been given the go to help suck the money towards one end and leave enough left over to create an enforcer class to keep the "consumers" in line, fueling division to keep the masses divided lest coming together with pitchforks, tar and feathers with the notion to set themselves free of tyranny, their overlords and false prophets. Those riding on the AI train have their eyes squarely focused on their dream of an oligarchical monopolistic despotism, you all know it. Your data (you) is collected, collated by powerful supersniffing algorithms with every facit of your life monitored, monetized and tracked down to who your family members are, your friends, where you go with whom and for how long, the food you eat, the films, television and music you digest.

Do you really believe that the corporations that treat you as property are benign entities looking out for your best interest?

 

Musk is going to build his own memory production facility. I would say the issue is real.

@Lois Lane agreed. Process information cognitively, not emotionally.

 

Of course not. I doubt anyone (minimally informed on the subject) believes that

Yes, it's very real. And like with CPUs/GPUs you can't create a new factory without at least several years

Of course I know, you made me laugh

I know it sounds bad coming from myself, but: hell yeah, you're right